Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Tyler Seguin's Shooting Percentage

In July of 2009 I wrote a post musing about Magnus Paajarvi Svensson's shooting percentage. Paajarvi recorded a 6.8% shooting percentage (SH%) in 2008/9*, and I hypothesized that the scouting reports suggesting he had "an inability to finish" could have been mistaking "bad luck" for such an inability; it was possible that Paajarvi's true talent for finishing was higher than it appeared based on last season's SH%. This season's shooting percentage* of 7.8% isn't suggestive of Paajarvi having a much better true talent SH% than his 6.8% from the previous season (although it doesn't conclusively disprove the theory either), but quickly revisiting this topic for Paajarvi allows me to point out an opposite possibility for potential Oiler Tyler Seguin.

I want to start by saying that I do not have any shot data for the OHL, as it isn't on their website***; what follows is speculation only. So this may be academic pretty soon if the stats turn up and disprove anything beyond this point. But, I do idly wonder what it might mean that Tyler Seguin has gone from 21 goals in 61 GP last year to 47 goals in 60GP this year. I am NOT saying this jump in production is, without question, a product of an extremely high SH% this season, or a combination of a below average SH% last season and an above average SH% this season, but I am suggesting it's a possibility the Oilers (or any drafting team) should investigate. It's possible that he's simply taking many more shots this year, or that he's actually improved his true talent SH% from last season. The shot data would be nice to have for Taylor Hall as well, but it's probably less critical with him because he has established himself as a great goal scorer at the OHL level prior to this season.

I don't know whether a high shooting percentage would be enough to "knock" Seguin from the top 2 in this year's draft. Even if you find that Seguin was "lucky" to score as many goals as he has this season, and decide to take away 10 goals as a correction, he'd still be sitting at 37 goals and 95 points, 2nd in the OHL in scoring. That said, shot totals and SH% information could be extremely useful in helping a team make a more informed selection should their draft decision be between Hall and Seguin.

* 7 goals on 103 shots

** 12 goals on 154 shots

*** Neither the WHL or OHL list shot data on their site. I've looked around for it, somewhat briefly perhaps, and haven't been able to find it. I have heard that they may not collect shot data, which would surprise me since the QMJHL does have shots and shooting percentage listed as part of the stats on their site.


dstaples said...

I've now seen Taylor Hall in five or six games. Incredible talent, and I'd love to see him as an Oiler.

I've only seen Seguin play once, in the Cherry-Orr game. Seguin was underwhelming, holding the puck too low, not so fast as Hall, trying to do too much, taking shifts that were too long, and not a gritty guy, either, based on that one game.

Small sample size, just a "see him bad" impression . . . I sure hope he's better than that one game.

Thomas said...

Having seen both of these guys play numerous times (Hall about 15 times live, Seguin about 40 times live...and I'm going to see them both play in about 4hrs), I have a pretty decent perspective on them.

I wouldn't chock up much of anything Seguin has done to luck. I've seen him score four goals this season that the official scorer attributed to someone else.

I don't have shot totals handy (though I know the OHL records them), but from what I've seen of Seguin the last two seasons, he's not shooting more this season than he was late last season when he started producing offensively.

As for Seguin dropping out of the top two, that's not going to happen. Everything I've heard has the Oilers preferring him over Hall, and judging by the number of times I've seen Lowe at Compuware this season, I really don't doubt it. He is the better of the two players, he's younger, he has more upside, and he's getting better. Hall hasn't improved his game since last season.

As for the Cherry-Orr game, Seguin had a much better game than Hall did, the problem was that Hall's linemates were jumping a lot more than Seguin's were. Toffoli and McFarland were total stinkers that game.

Another thing nobody mentions is that Seguin had a hip pointer for about three weeks this season. It made him unable to shoot with any sort of accuracy, and that's why you saw his goal production stagnate in December and early January. You could tell when he started feeling better, because his whole game improved.

See them both on a regular basis, and you'll see that Hall is a flashier skater, but his speed doesn't increase when he has the puck like most true offensively gifted players. He circles around the offensive zone (or the neutral zone when his team is playing defense) at a pretty rapid rate, but it negatively effects him late in games, as he gets too tired to go on.

If you're an Oilers fan, the two things you should be most concerned about with regard to Hall are the stagnation of his development the past 12mos and the fact that he's a locker room cancer. The Spits are the most talented team in junior hockey, yet the players absolutely LOATHE him. The team's lack of chemistry holds it back, and there's no shortage of Spits fans who look forward to Hall (and Ellis) leaving the team next season. This month's Redline Report touched on his attitude problems a bit, and I can tell you that Kyle was being rather generous to Hall in his assessment. He did more to sour himself in the eyes of NHL scouts that game than any junior player I've ever seen. HUGE red flags. The book on Hall is that all you have to do is lay a body into him or give him a couple little slashes that the refs don't see, and he's completely useless the rest of the game. I've never seen a more immature player.

speeds said...

Thanks for the take Thomas, that's a great read.

I've seen very little of either player, only Hall at the WJHC, but I definitely like the sound of Seguin's game better than Hall's.

I'm not sure which one is the better prospect at this time, but generally speaking I prefer a center vs. a winger and the player with better hockey sense. From what I've read, it sounds like Seguin is ahead in both categories.

Anonymous said...

Thomas, your take on Hall is the exact opposite from Bob Boughner the Windsor head coach who said Hall is a menace when it comes to punishment. That you can target him all game and he keeps coming at you.

I'm not saying your wrong, seeing as I've seen very little of Hall playing, but why are there such big differences in descriptions?

It was touted by Boughner as one of Hall's strengths.

Thomas said...

Anonymous, of course a coach and a GM are going to talk up their own player. It makes Hall sound much better to say that he battles through checks and perseveres than to say that he gets hit and blows his lid.

Here, check this out and read the "Off the Record" part:

Colby Cosh said...

...then check out the fact that Redline still thinks we should take Hall.