Tyler Seguin's Shooting Percentage
In July of 2009 I wrote a post musing about Magnus Paajarvi Svensson's shooting percentage. Paajarvi recorded a 6.8% shooting percentage (SH%) in 2008/9*, and I hypothesized that the scouting reports suggesting he had "an inability to finish" could have been mistaking "bad luck" for such an inability; it was possible that Paajarvi's true talent for finishing was higher than it appeared based on last season's SH%. This season's shooting percentage* of 7.8% isn't suggestive of Paajarvi having a much better true talent SH% than his 6.8% from the previous season (although it doesn't conclusively disprove the theory either), but quickly revisiting this topic for Paajarvi allows me to point out an opposite possibility for potential Oiler Tyler Seguin.
I want to start by saying that I do not have any shot data for the OHL, as it isn't on their website***; what follows is speculation only. So this may be academic pretty soon if the stats turn up and disprove anything beyond this point. But, I do idly wonder what it might mean that Tyler Seguin has gone from 21 goals in 61 GP last year to 47 goals in 60GP this year. I am NOT saying this jump in production is, without question, a product of an extremely high SH% this season, or a combination of a below average SH% last season and an above average SH% this season, but I am suggesting it's a possibility the Oilers (or any drafting team) should investigate. It's possible that he's simply taking many more shots this year, or that he's actually improved his true talent SH% from last season. The shot data would be nice to have for Taylor Hall as well, but it's probably less critical with him because he has established himself as a great goal scorer at the OHL level prior to this season.
I don't know whether a high shooting percentage would be enough to "knock" Seguin from the top 2 in this year's draft. Even if you find that Seguin was "lucky" to score as many goals as he has this season, and decide to take away 10 goals as a correction, he'd still be sitting at 37 goals and 95 points, 2nd in the OHL in scoring. That said, shot totals and SH% information could be extremely useful in helping a team make a more informed selection should their draft decision be between Hall and Seguin.
* 7 goals on 103 shots
** 12 goals on 154 shots
*** Neither the WHL or OHL list shot data on their site. I've looked around for it, somewhat briefly perhaps, and haven't been able to find it. I have heard that they may not collect shot data, which would surprise me since the QMJHL does have shots and shooting percentage listed as part of the stats on their site.