Saturday, February 06, 2010

Waivers prior to the Olympic break

WAIVERS

I don't expect to see the Oilers to make much use of the waiver wire before the Olympic break, but I think it would be an interesting approach for the Oilers nearing the deadline. Maybe they can get ahead of the trading and move a player through waivers while not having to pay them over the Olympic break.

The two players I'm looking at are Staios and Moreau. Obviously if Tambellini has heard that there's a positive trade market for either of these players, waiving them doesn't make much sense, so I'm assuming there may not appear to be much interest in either player. I'm not sure either player would be claimed on waivers, but I think it's worth it to find out. Who knows, maybe there's a team out there that would claim one of them, but are just trying to get as good a deal as possible and don't think EDM would waive one/either of them. If EDM management is concerned about public perception, maybe it wouldn't hurt to send the message to fans that the Oilers are serious about remaking the roster, by waivers if necessary.

DOWNGRADING A PICK vs. RE-ENTRY WAIVERS vs. BUY-OUT

Depending how bad the trade offers are for Moreau, re-entry waivers might be a decent option. I'm not sure it makes as much sense with Staios, but with Moreau perhaps re-entry waivers, prior to this season's deadline, makes sense when compared to buying the player out this summer or keeping him for next season?

It would probably make more cap and financial sense to lose him on re-entry waivers than with a buy-out. It would cost an extra 333K in cap room next season, vs. a buyout, but the cost in actual cash is lower and there would be no 667K buyout cap charge in 11/12. That assumes that someone would claim him on re-entry, but if they don't you could always buy him out come the summer.

Before it gets to that stage, Edmonton will likely consider the option brought up by Darren Dreger of TSN, but they should be considering the options in their back pocket (buyout, re-entry waivers in the summer)

I would guess, financially, it probably makes sense to deal Moreau and a 3rd for Exelby and a 7th; the value of moving 4 rounds down in the draft is likely not worth keeping Moreau for another season if he can be replaced with a player making 700K for 10/11. But it may be a tough sell for the fans if they are giving up a third round pick, roughly 61st-65th, while a big chunk of fans are antsy for a rebuild. If the best offer they receive for Moreau were something like Moreau and 2nd/3rd for Exelby and 7th, I'm not sure the Oilers would make that deal even if it makes marginal financial sense, preferring to keep the pick for drafting. In that case, the decision to buyout, place on re-entry waivers, or keep Moreau for another season becomes more relevant.

* - Does anyone have a link to an article that monetizes the value of each draft pick?

2 Comments:

At 4:44 PM, February 07, 2010 , Blogger Scott Reynolds said...

I think waiving him is a great idea because there's at least some chance that he refuses to report to Springfield, at which point they can put him on unconditional waivers and if he fails to report they can terminate his contract. If Moreau seriously thinks there's a market for him he might actually roll those dice. And he would of course become a free agent immediately and could sign with a playoff team for the rest of this season.

 
At 6:48 PM, February 07, 2010 , Blogger speeds said...

That's an angle I hadn't even considered. I think Moreau would actually report to Springfield, but if he didn't it would be beneficial to the Oilers, from a cap/cash perspective. And, if he did report, I suppose EDM could then decide between re-entry waivers or leaving him in the AHL for the rest of the season.

If one cares about public perception, I'm not sure how it looks to potentially get in a public pissing match with your (former?) captain. Maybe the team looks bad, maybe Moreau does, maybe both or neither. Who knows how that would play out?

 

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