Tuesday, June 09, 2009

Heatley on the market?

TSN is reporting that Dany Heatley has asked for a trade. Sportsnet suggests Heatley may want to move to the Western conference.

I definitely expect the Oilers to make a push for Heatley, and I expect that push to be more aggressive than I would like to see. I like Heatley fine as a hockey player, but I'm not sure I hold as high an opinion of his play as do others. Like Lecavalier, I think it's highly possible that whoever acquires him will pay too much. Unlike Lecavalier, I do think trading for Heatley is a move worth investigating; I just think I personally wouldn't be willing to pay what I imagine it will cost to acquire him. For instance, I would rather have Gaborik and he would cost nothing but money, probably quite similar money (Heatley has a 7.5 mil cap hit) with term being unknown for Gaborik. That said, there's no guarantee you are successful in acquiring Gaborik, and Heatley seems to be less of an injury risk going forward.

To use a baseball analogy, I think it makes more sense for the Oilers to play small ball this summer, as opposed too swinging for a home run. That said, if someone's grooving fastballs down the middle of the plate I'm not opposed to swinging away.


Coach pb9617 said...

Trades have to happen either in a salary dump or a flip for Heatley. They have to trim about 10 million from their cap.

speeds said...

It depends who you need to move to land Heatley though, as to how hard that is vs. signing a UFA.

If EDM traded Cogliano, Gilbert and 10 OV for Heatley (way too much IMO), they wouldn't really have that much to do to make cap room.

However, relative to signing a UFA, I don't think it's all that much more work to sign a top UFA for the same money Heatley is making, and then trade Cogliano and Gilbert for picks, if that's how you choose to make cap room - you're not going to have problems moving the guys it would have taken to land Heatley (in the above hypothetical) if all you want back is picks/prospects.

Things change if you include players in the deal that you can't move on their own, are harder to move on their own, or it's unknown if you can move them on their own.

quain said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
quain said...

This is pretty spot on. Heatley is a legitimate player with a slightly high cap hit for the general era (if the cap were still going up it'd be fine), but nothing absurd there. The only issue is, he got his fair market value so we'd be bringing in a guy that wouldn't create much above his cap hit, and we'd have to send out legitimate players.

If we could grab him for something like Souray/Penner + Cogliano + Nilsson/Moreau it would be fantastic (moving less productive money and Cogliano for more productive money), but if it's something like Gilbert + Cogliano + a pick, I need a drink.

I can't imagine us not getting him unless he says no to the team. He's exactly what everyone in management wants and fills an actual hole in the depth chart, so we'll be batting hard. I'm a little frightened.

Coach pb9617 said...

If EDM traded Cogliano, Gilbert and 10 OV for Heatley (way too much IMO), they wouldn't really have that much to do to make cap room.

Yes they would. They're adding 2 million in cap and still have to sign a defender and two goalies.

speeds said...

It'd kind of tough to say since we don't know what the cap will be, but let's say it's 56 mil next year (EDM was ~ 1.5 mil under the cap last year, it's not like they were tight right to it last year).

It sounds like they'll move Nilsson, I'll assume that's the first guy they try to shed. If not, they can move Moreau. If not, they can move Pisani. If not, they can move O'Sullivan. They can carry 21 or 22 players if they want. There's a lot they could do to make it work around the edges. If none of that worked, they could send someone to the minors.

Coach pb9617 said...

I don't trust the Oilers to not bungle this completely.

speeds said...

I'm not sure I do either coach, but we'll see how things work with Tambellini.

Wasn't too much to dislike from deadline day, though I would have kept the 2nd and not acquired Kotalik. Even if I was determined to use the 2nd, I'd have acquired Moore instead.

speeds said...

Just because I didn't always agree with how Lowe handled things doesn't mean I won't agree with Tambellini more often.

Mr DeBakey said...

"they wouldn't really have that much to do to make cap room"

Even if they do the absolute minmum,
they have to dump $9 million

Add Jagr at Hemsky's Salsry
Add Betts as 4th C for less than $750,000
Spend about $3.3 on the goalies
They're over $54 mm.

And you've dumped:
Robert Nilsson
Ales Kotalik
Liam Reddox
Patrick O'Sullivan
Ethan Moreau

quain said...

Adding Jagr really doesn't qualify as the absolute minimum.

Coach pb9617 said...

They need to luck out and have Moreau get a 3 million offer from the KHL :)

Mr DeBakey said...

"Adding Jagr really doesn't qualify as the absolute minimum."

Mr Tambellini did say they were going to get bigger a/o grittier the top 6.

If they found an option cheaper than Jagr,
they could keep Moreau,
and move $7 mm+ down the highway

My word verification is "oberg"
I'm feeling all Lyley

Vic Ferrari said...

I agree with your baseball metaphor in the last paragraph, speeds. Most of the blogs I read seem to be on the same page as well.

Still, my sense of it is that the Oilers want to bring in a star player. I may be wrong, it it sure feels like small ball is out of the question here. My guess is that Katz is sending Tambellini to the plate expecting him to swing like Dave Kingman.

So I've already accepted in my own mind that the Oilers will be going for the big name player, it's just a matter of which one(s) they target and whether they are successful. I really like Heatley as well, and as you say it really becomes a matter of how much they pay in trade, in this case or any other.

I'm not complaining about Katz though. This talk of being willing to hide salary in the AHL warms my heart as well. I always got the feeling that the EIG instructed Lowe to go up to the plate with much fanfare, under instruction to get a base on balls. Maybe foul one or two off to make it look good. And if he was called out on strikes to be sure to criticize the umpire.

The Katz era beats the holy hell out of that.

speeds said...

I wouldn't complain if the Oilers have an owner willing to pay players in the minors, etc.