tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14549434.post2219287905184058348..comments2023-10-04T08:47:13.314-06:00Comments on The Hockey Symposium: Backstrom an Offer Sheet Candidate?speedshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08328543507843688509noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14549434.post-73425115527944569852010-03-19T19:27:55.820-06:002010-03-19T19:27:55.820-06:00Buddha Pest:
I shouldn't have included Edmont...Buddha Pest:<br /><br />I shouldn't have included Edmonton in that list. I only mentioned them to foreshadow that I was, later in the post, going to list their roster IF they signed Backstrom to an offer sheet. I didn't mean to appear to advocate that they do so. Sorry for the confusion.<br /><br />I posted that mainly to show that it was possible for EDM to make such a move and comply with the cap, though it would be tight. And also to see what the lineup might look like.speedshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08328543507843688509noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14549434.post-36613123517948137642010-03-19T19:20:35.531-06:002010-03-19T19:20:35.531-06:00Buddha Pest:
I think they keep Backstrom over Sem...Buddha Pest:<br /><br />I think they keep Backstrom over Semin as well, if they have to choose.<br /><br />I'm not saying that I think it's necssarily a good idea for Edmonton to offer sheet Backstrom, if he becomes an RFA. I can certainly see the argument against giving up 4 1st round picks like the Oilers would if they signed Backstrom to such a contract - it's too big a price to pay if they believe they'll finish bottom 5 for at least the next couple of seasons. An offer sheet to Backstrom makes much more sense to a team that is expecting to finish at the top of the standings than a team at the bottom.speedshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08328543507843688509noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14549434.post-38325784626569896572010-03-19T12:55:33.807-06:002010-03-19T12:55:33.807-06:00Prime example of my point that teams will be locki...Prime example of my point that teams will be locking up their young elite players- Ryan Kesler re-signed today for $5 mil/year. If he wasn't signed, I would have to think that he could have got at least $6 million per in the open market.Buddha Pestnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14549434.post-81081422860325545882010-03-18T23:23:08.545-06:002010-03-18T23:23:08.545-06:00#2
- I can't speculate why the Caps haven'...#2<br />- I can't speculate why the Caps haven't re-signed Backstrom yet. I will say that I don't think McPhee is an idiot; so I don't think he'll let Backstrom be exposed to an RFA offer sheet. Perhaps Backstrom's agent is playing hardball in order to get as much out of the Caps as possible.<br /><br />- as I said before, even if was given an offer sheet, there's no way that the Caps don't match the offer (perhaps unless the offering team offered something ridiculous like $15 mil per year). McPhee might as well quit if they didn't match.<br /><br />- if the Caps were to be in salary cap trouble (which I don't think they will be next season or the next few seasons), I think that the most likely scenario would be to trade Semin. He's 25 and scheduled to be UFA after next season if they don't agree to an extension. He previously left the Caps to go back to Russia and perhaps he would do it again. But, if given a choice between Backstrom and Semin, I think they stick with Backstrom because he means more to the team than Semin does. They would probably get a whack load in a trade involving Semin if they couldn't agree to an extension.<br /><br />#3<br />- I'm not sure what you mean by the above comments, but let's say for the sake of argument that the Oilers gave Backstrom an offer sheet and it wasn't matched. I would have to say the contract would have to be worth at least $9 million for the Caps not to match. But, let's use $8 million per year for 5 years. Let's also assume that all current Oilers with contracts remain with the teams for the duration of their contracts.<br /><br />Using the team cap numbers from nhlnumbers.com, the Oilers team cap for the next 3 years ends ups:<br /><br />2010: $41.842 mil + $8 mil= $49.842 mil<br /><br />2011: $31.000 mil + $8 mil= $39 mil<br /><br />2012: $17, 250 + $8 mil= $25.250 mil<br /><br />Alright, I'll agree that when 2011 and 2012 roll around, the team cap doesn't look that bad. But, 2010 would be a disaster considering that the Oilers would have only about $8 million to sign Gagner, Cogliano, Brule, and about 4 other players.<br /><br />It's more the impact of losing at least 4 future first rounders and tying up all of that money in one player during a time of re-build that would be the most negative on the Oilers.<br /><br />The RFA offer sheet has done nothing except help escalate player salaries and hinder team development of the teams that use them. It is a tool that has been used by some player agents to get maximum financial value for certain players.<br /><br />It has also forced teams to ensure that the core of young players that they each have are signed long-term and protected from other teams looking to make an offer sheet.Buddha Pestnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14549434.post-37592715456658001202010-03-18T23:22:28.779-06:002010-03-18T23:22:28.779-06:00My rebuttal to Speeds comments:
#1
- Exactly how ...My rebuttal to Speeds comments:<br /><br />#1<br />- Exactly how many RFA offer sheets have there been since Penner? If I recall- 2 (Backes by Vancouver and Bernier by St. Louis). Both were matched. If GMs thought offer sheets were useful why haven't there been more made?<br />- how happy would we be if the Vanek offer sheet wasn't matched by Buffalo. The Oilers would have lost 4 1st round picks for a player who has had one only one 40 goal season since the RFA and hasn't reached 65 points during the past 3 seasons. Let's not mention the cap hit he would be giving the Oilers right now. Then again, if they had Vanek they probably wouldn't have Horcoff tied up for the next 4 years.<br />- I have never been a supporter of the Penner offer sheet. I'll give credit to Penner for his improved play this year, but I would never have signed him for the contract that he got and given up 3 draft picks for him. It's hard to speculate now, but with the Ducks in a serious cap trouble in 2007, had the Oilers waited and negotiated a trade with the Ducks (perhaps they did try to negotiate a trade), they probably would have got Penner for less than the 3 draft picks.<br /><br />- Toronto's trade for Kessel was a trade, but it was equivalent to an offer sheet. How happy is Toronto now giving up 2 first rounders plus?<br /><br />- the signing of Khabibulin doesn't prove that UFA signings is a bad tool. But, it does prove signing an injury prone 36 year old goalie to a $15 million 4 year contract when you haven't figured out which direction in the standings your team is headed is not such a good idea. Tambellini has to do a better job this summer and in the future with UFA signings.<br /><br />- the drafting of Niinimaki doesn't prove that the NHL Entry Draft is a bad tool. But, it does prove that when your scouts tell you to go off the board and use your first round draft pick on a player that no one projected to be in the first 30 picks or so, you might not know what you are doing. You're probably better off just going by how Central Scouting or Bob McKenzie rates the top prospects.Buddha Pestnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14549434.post-3648628224571963662010-03-18T19:49:19.416-06:002010-03-18T19:49:19.416-06:00Scott:
I think it's very reasonable to sugges...Scott:<br /><br />I think it's very reasonable to suggest the Oilers not offer sheet Backstrom - I would be extraordinarily surprised if they did. There's certainly downside risk present, and a lot of potential egg to wear if it doesn't work out. Interestingly, the fact that WSH might project EDM's picks to be very valuable could result in WSH declining to match an EDM offer sheet to Backstrom while matching an ANA offer sheet.speedshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08328543507843688509noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14549434.post-7828566800828355292010-03-18T19:41:00.475-06:002010-03-18T19:41:00.475-06:00Buddha Pest in bold:
Both offer sheets are proof ...Buddha Pest in bold:<br /><br /><b>Both offer sheets are proof to GMs that offer sheets are not a very good tool to employ.</b><br /><br />Is the signing of Khabibulin proof that unrestricted free agency is not a good tool to employ? Is the drafting of Niinimaki proof that the entry draft is not a good tool to employ?<br /><br /><b>In any event, there's no way that the Caps let Backstrom go un-signed to July 1. Even if they did and he did get an offer sheet, they will definitely match.</b><br /><br />I generally agree that they are very likely to match. However, the fact that he isn't signed yet is somewhat surprising. It doesn't necessarily mean anything, but other guys have been signed by this point.<br /><br /><b>Tambellini is going to have to worry about the Oilers situation 3 or 4 years from if these 3 players blossom like we hope they will. If each of these players becomes a "Backstrom", we're talking cap hits of at least $7 million per year per player.</b><br /><br />If you knew each of those players was going to become a "Backstrom" I think you could make an excellent argument that they maybe they SHOULD sign Backstrom now to capitalize on the cap savings generated from having $21 million dollars in player value signed for the next 3 seasons at 6.75 mil combined. And worry about what to do in three years after 3 years.speedshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08328543507843688509noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14549434.post-19126673146679797492010-03-18T19:17:57.782-06:002010-03-18T19:17:57.782-06:00I don't think the Oilers can take this chance....I don't think the Oilers can take this chance. There's some chance that the goaltending implodes again and further, that the defence has a hard time covering for the mistakes made by some of the (still) young forwards.<br /><br />Add to that the fact that Backstrom has played almost exclusively with Ovechkin and the gamble just seems too large for the Oilers.<br /><br />Of all the teams you mentioned as possibilities I think that the Kings are probably the best fit.Scott Reynoldshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05735545121522530577noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14549434.post-22925909393055415412010-03-18T16:24:40.181-06:002010-03-18T16:24:40.181-06:00In my opinion, the days of the RFA offer sheet for...In my opinion, the days of the RFA offer sheet for elite players is over (at least those days will be few and far between).<br /><br />Lowe's offer sheets for Vanek and Penner were aberrations in the post new CBA NHL era. Both offer sheets are proof to GMs that offer sheets are not a very good tool to employ.<br /><br />In any event, there's no way that the Caps let Backstrom go un-signed to July 1. Even if they did and he did get an offer sheet, they will definitely match.<br /><br />As for the Oilers offer sheeting somebody, particularly a player like Backstrom, would Tambellini really dare to? Especially considering the young talent (MPS/Eberle/Hall (or Seguin) that would potentially be exposed 3 or 4 years from now?<br /><br />Tambellini is going to have to worry about the Oilers situation 3 or 4 years from if these 3 players blossom like we hope they will. If each of these players becomes a "Backstrom", we're talking cap hits of at least $7 million per year per player.Buddha Pestnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14549434.post-47054724079617703152010-03-18T08:47:44.893-06:002010-03-18T08:47:44.893-06:00A team needs to have 4 of their next 5 firsts avai...A team needs to have 4 of their next 5 firsts available to sign a player to such an offer sheet. The 2010 draft will be over by the time Backstrom would become an RFA, and beyond that point TOR, I believe, has 4 of its next 5 first round picks, with Boston holding the 2011 1st round pick.speedshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08328543507843688509noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14549434.post-20580690534876125522010-03-18T02:18:57.418-06:002010-03-18T02:18:57.418-06:00Toronto lacks the picks to make an offer, at least...Toronto lacks the picks to make an offer, at least unless Boston decides to charitably deliver them back their next few 1st rounders... and since the Leafs seem to be going nowhere anytime soon that's unlikely.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com